AUSTRALIAN OPEN – 3rd Round summary. 81.25%

There were hardly any surprises in 3rd round. Higher seeded players were eliminating lower ranking players. Although some of them had to go extra distance:

Sinner (2) unexpectedly lost first set in his 3:1 win, also Zverev (3), Fritz (9), Bublik (10) and Ruud (12) all won 3:1. Medvedev (11) had to dig deep after losing first 2 sets, but finally prevailed 3:2.

Best predictions were: Alcaraz (1) – Prediction: 6-3 6-2…was: 6-2 6-4 6-1

Djokovic (4) – Prediction: 6-3 6-3…was: 6-3 6-4 7-6(4)

De Minaur (6) – Prediction: 6-3 6-3…was: 6-3 6-4 7-5

In third round (R32) based on our TenELOs surface ratings higher rated players won 13 out of 16 matches. That’s 81.25%. But if we take in consideration our PREDICTOR it’s closer to Perfection because in all those 3 losing matches Predictions were EVEN scores. In that case we would not recommend to pick winners.

Musetti (#5) had only slightly lower HARD surface rating (2672) than unseeded Machac (2689) and AI PREDICTOR showed perfectly EVEN match 7-6 6-7, so there was no surprise that there was 5 set match!

Similarly in match:

Cerundolo (18) (Hard ELO – 2667) comparing to Rublev (13) (ELO-2704) prediction was also 7-6 6-7 due to better Cerundolo performance in last 10 matches. Score 6-3 7-6(4) 6-3 for Cerundolo was the biggest surprise of 3rd round. Although we would not try to pick winner in that match.

And the last even match was:

Darderi (22) v Khachanov (15). Both players were not showing impressive results just before AUSTRALIAN OPEN (+3 -7). Winning 3rd round match for 23 yrs old Darderi is his best result at any GRAND SLAM is his career. According to our HARD surface ELO ratings he is the lowest ranking player left in tournament. Will he continue his remarkable run? Most likely NOT. Our PREDICTOR gives him only 25% chance of winning in next round.

In the next round there are only 8 matches. We expect to correctly predict based on our statistics 7!