AUSTRALIAN OPEN – SF & FINAL prediction.

Carlos ALCARAZ beat Alexander Zverev. It was the longest SF match in AUSTRALIAN OPEN history. 5 sets and almost 5 and half hour battle. Zverev was actually serving for a match at 5:4, but completely exhausted was unable to close a win. It was expected to be a tough close match. Before their duel H2H score was even 6:6. But on Hard surface Zverev lead was 5:3. He also had better results in AO reaching 2 SF and 1 Final, while Alcaraz never went past QF. Alcaraz was big favourite according to bookmakers with odds 1.14. (betting 1$ = 1.14$ return) In matches like that it’s good idea to bet on handicaps. I recommended: Zverev will win 1 set and Handicap Zverev +5.5 games which doubled money.

Djokovic beat Sinner. Sinner was a huge favourite to win with odds 1.07. Everything was pointing to easy win for him. He won last 2 years in AUSTRALIAN OPEN Final. He is 24, and Djokovic is 38 years old. On Hard courts Sinner was leading Djokovic 4:1. Finally Sinner won last 20 matches in a row…but every winning streak will have to end sometime. There were few signs that could indicate that the match is not going to be so easy. In our TenELOs live Hard surface ELO (Life - long term rating) Djokovic still holds tiny advantage. In the last 2 matches he had rest break. He won by walkover without playing with Mensik in 4th round and his opponent in QF - Musetti RETIRED match in 3rd set. The most important factor probably has more to do with mentality. Djokovic wildly regarded as GOAT (Greatest of All Time) is mentally Genius. He doesn’t get easily distracted when he is 100% focus even if whole stadium will cheer for his opponent. Any small nuances of the match he can turn into his advantage and motivate himself, especially in crucial moments. I can’t say same thing about Sinner. Sinner plays great tennis when there is little pressure on him. Last year his closest rival was Alcaraz. He didn’t face him in AO 2025 and he won tournament. After 3 months off due to suspension there was no pressure on him to do well in FRENCH OPEN clay (his worst surface where SF was his best result). Suddenly he found himself in Final against huge favourite defending champion Alcaraz and had 3 match points! Alcaraz was the guy who showed in this critical moment how to play best tennis when is needed. In WIMBLEDON there was again expectation that Sinner will lose again to defending champion ALCARAZ, but without that pressure he won! After Wimbledon there was Hard court season (his best surface) when he needed to win fighting for ATP #1 spot. He retired in Cincinnati Final where he was losing 5:0. Pressure again after that result up to US OPEN Final our PREDICTOR PRO was already showing Alcaraz winning 3:1, so he lost accordingly! In 6 Kings tournament – no pressure and no ATP points again he destroyed competition. In Turin ATP Final no pressure again because he already lost #1 ATP ranking to Alcaraz, he beat easily Alcaraz in straight sets. After this tournament gap between ATP #1 – Alcaraz will get wider. However, in the next few months Sinner is expected to get closer to Alcaraz in ATP race.

ALCARAZ v DJOKOVIC prediction. Djokovic is underdog (3.5 meaning betting 1$ on him will return 3.5$) Same odds like in Paris Olympics in 2024 (Clay). Our predictor then correctly predicted shocking straight win for Djokovic!! This time it shows split sets. Alcaraz is favourite to win 1.30. Because Djokovic is underdog the best bet percentage in a long run is similar to Alcaraz v Zverev match…betting that Djokovic will win a set (1.40 - that alone is better than betting on Alcaraz win) + handicap games on Djokovic + (bet365 gives equal odds on +4.5 but if you use different betting platforms there are more safer choices)