Rublev - new CLAY court specialist !

Rublev just won Bastad (250) tournament on clay, it's reasonable to conclude that clay is currently his strongest surface.

TenELOs surface live ratings for Rublev are:

• Clay: 2721
• Hard: 2701
• Grass: 2631

A 20-point gap between clay and hard is not huge—it suggests he's excellent on both surfaces. I wouldn't say he's much better on clay than hard, but I would say clay is his best surface right now.

His achievements also support that conclusion:

• 🏆 2 ATP Masters 1000 titles, both on clay:

  • Monte Carlo (2023)
  • Madrid (2024)

• 🏆 Multiple ATP clay titles, including Bastad twice.

• 🏆 Strong clay results in 2026, including the Bastad title and a Barcelona final.

• ❌ Despite many deep runs on hard courts, he has never won a Masters 1000 on hard.

This is an interesting case where results and ratings agree:

• The surface Elo says clay is his strongest surface.
• His biggest career titles have all come on clay.
• His recent form has reinforced that assessment.

One nuance is that hard courts remain extremely close. Rublev has won many ATP titles on hard courts and has historically accumulated a large share of his ranking points there. If his hard-court results improve later in the season, the Elo ratings could easily converge again or even switch.

So my assessment would be:

• Current strongest surface: Clay ✔️
• Second-best: Hard (very close)
• Third: Grass

The fact that his highest Surface Elo (2721) aligns with the surface where he has won his only two Masters 1000 titles makes the conclusion particularly convincing. It's a case where both an objective rating system and his highest-level achievements point to the same answer.

In a Last 10 Hot Performances on Clay Rublev is #4... only Sinner, Alcaraz and Zverev are in front of him