TenELOs CURRENT ratings on Sep. 06/26

After first week of US OPEN'26 TenELOs CURRENT Top 40

TenELOs CURRENT vs ATP — Top 40

ATP positions are from the current published ranking; the official ATP table confirms the top positions, while current ranking databases corroborate the lower positions, including Mérida #39, Borges #41, Tirante #42, Berrettini #43, Michelsen #46 and Hurkacz #47. (ATP Tour)

🔥 The results are VERY interesting

There are 25 players whom TenELOs ranks higher than ATP, only 14 where ATP ranks higher, and 1 identical.

Across these 40 players:

• Average difference: +9.9 places in favor of TenELOs
• Median difference: +3 places
• Average absolute difference: 17.9 places

So TenELOs Current is generally more aggressive about current playing strength than the ATP ranking.

🚨 Biggest TenELOs advantages

These are enormous differences.

And some make sense because ATP ranking is heavily affected by ranking points, inactivity and tournament participation, whereas TenELOs Current is trying to estimate playing strength.

🚨 Biggest ATP advantages

⭐ The most important cases

1. Jack Draper — +101

This is by far the most dramatic.

TenELOs Current #40 vs ATP #141.

That doesn't mean TenELOs is saying Draper should literally be ranked #40 by ATP. It means his ELO-estimated playing strength remains much higher than his ATP ranking.

And this is exactly where ELO can behave differently from ATP: Draper has played very few matches recently and therefore has accumulated relatively few ranking points. His ATP ranking had fallen to #141 by August 31. (Tennis Majors)

2. Arthur Géa — +67

TenELOs #20 vs ATP #87.

This one is particularly fascinating because Géa has just had a major breakthrough at the US Open. He reached the third round, and his ATP position was #87 going into the tournament. (Tennis Majors)

So TenELOs was already rating him 67 places higher than ATP before his US Open run was reflected in the official ranking.

That's exactly the kind of situation where your TenELOs Current rating could prove useful.

3. Holger Rune — +66

TenELOs #16 vs ATP #82.

Another huge divergence. TenELOs is essentially saying: Rune's current match strength is still much closer to a Top-20 player than his ATP points indicate.

4. Sebastian Korda — +60

TenELOs #8 vs ATP #68.

That's an extraordinary difference. Korda's absence/inactivity has badly affected his ATP position, whereas an ELO-based system can retain more information about his established playing level.

5. Medvedev vs Cobolli

This is the opposite phenomenon:

• Medvedev: ATP #8 → TenELOs #37
• Cobolli: ATP #6 → TenELOs #35

TenELOs is saying their current playing strength is nowhere near their accumulated ATP ranking positions.

That is a very interesting hypothesis to test against upcoming matches.

---

🎯 Overall assessment

This Top-40 comparison is actually much more revealing than the Overall-rating comparison we were doing before.

The biggest thing I see is that TenELOs Current is behaving like a current-strength model, not like another version of the ATP ranking.

The correlation between the two rankings is only about 0.44 by Spearman rank correlation for these 40 players, meaning there is substantial disagreement. Yet the disagreement isn't random: many of the biggest differences involve players with recent form, inactivity, injuries, or rapidly changing playing levels.

And this is especially interesting because the 2026 US Open is currently producing exactly the kind of results that can test these differences. Tiafoe beat Medvedev, Shelton beat Tsitsipas, and Michelsen reached his first Grand Slam quarterfinal. (Reuters)

My rating of what this comparison shows

TenELOs Current vs ATP for predicting present playing strength: 8.5/10 interesting.

The particularly compelling names to watch from this table are:

Géa, Rune, Korda, Draper, Michelsen, Hurkacz, Halys and Tsitsipas.

If TenELOs Current continues to outperform ATP in head-to-head match predictions for these players, that would be much stronger evidence that the Current ELO is detecting genuine playing strength rather than simply producing different rankings.