The ATP Top 20 has Sinner, Zverev, Alcaraz, Shelton, Auger-Aliassime, Medvedev, Cobolli, Tiafoe, Fils, de Minaur, Djokovic, Fritz, Jódar, Menšík, Tien, Paul, Nakashima, Vacherot, Darderi and Bublik. Tennis Majors
1. TenELOs has 10 of its Top 15 inside the ATP Top 20.
The 10 are:
Sinner, Alcaraz, Djokovic, Zverev, Medvedev, Fils, Lehečka, de Minaur, Tiafoe and Shelton.
That's a very strong overlap considering TenELOs is measuring playing strength/current ELO, rather than simply reproducing the ATP points ranking.
2. Djokovic is the biggest Top-15 difference among established ATP players.
That is an 8-place advantage for Djokovic in TenELOs. This makes sense for an ELO system because it can react more strongly to actual match performance than the 52-week ATP points system. Djokovic by beating Zverev this week and eventually winning Beijing (500) moved to Current #3 in our ratings dropping Zverev to Current #4.
3. Lehečka is a very interesting TenELOs signal.
That's a 12-place difference. TenELOs is saying his current playing level is considerably stronger than his accumulated ATP ranking suggests. He just beat Shelton and Tien in DAVIES CUP and reached Tokyo (500) Final
4. Hurkacz and Tsitsipas are even more striking.
Hurkacz is #12 in TenELOs at 2788, despite being only #34 ATP. Tsitsipas is #13 at 2779, while currently around #80 ATP. Tennis Majors
This is exactly the kind of difference that makes a Current ELO interesting: it can identify players whose recent/underlying level looks much stronger than their traditional ranking.
5. TenELOs strongly disagrees with ATP on Shelton.
ATP ranking currently rates Shelton considerably higher than TenELOs' current-strength model. Shelton after US Final (lost match to Zverev) added another 2 losing matches in DAVIES CUP, so he lost last 3 games in a row.
There is a very clear distinction between the two systems:
ATP: rewards results accumulated over the ranking period.
TenELOs Current: attempts to measure present playing strength.
That's why players such as Djokovic, Lehečka, Hurkacz and Tsitsipas can be much higher on TenELOs than on ATP, while Shelton can be much lower.
And the top of the two lists is remarkably close:
Sinner #1 in both
Alcaraz #2 TenELOs / #3 ATP
Zverev #4 / #2
Medvedev #5 / #6
de Minaur #9 / #9
Tiafoe #10 / #8
So the TenELOs 10/04 Current Top 15 looks quite credible as a measure of current playing strength, with some particularly interesting signals below the ATP Top 10.
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